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SPC MD 1042

MD 1042 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 294... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS.
MD 1042 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1042
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Areas affected...North-central Missouri and far eastern Kansas.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 294...

Valid 210256Z - 210400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 294
continues.

SUMMARY...A few severe storms with a threat for strong wind gusts
will remain possible across the far southern fringe of WW294 through
the 0400z expiration time.

DISCUSSION...As of 0240z, RADAR data showed a loosely organized band
of storms stretching from near Kansas City into north-central
Missouri. Storm coverage has increased likely as a result of
strengthening low-level warm advection with the nocturnal low-level
jet. Flow associated with the jet will remain largely parallel to
the ongoing band of storms suggesting slower forward propagating
speeds and additional development focused along the southern flank.
Mostly non-severe gusts have been observed over the last 40 minutes,
but storms will likely remain capable of isolated damaging gusts as
they exit the southern portions of WW294 over the next hour.
Additional cellular development to the west across far eastern
Kansas may grow upscale and continue to the east posing a risk for
isolated gusts and or small hail after 04z. While convective
coverage is forecast to increase, the threat for severe weather
should gradually abate through 0400z as the boundary layer separates
and inhibition increases.

..Lyons.. 06/21/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39239375 39359313 39279281 38989262 38769268 38719281
            38639323 38399371 38179432 38249461 38509469 38889464
            39239375 

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SPC MD 1041

MD 1041 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296... FOR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL...NORTHEAST MO
MD 1041 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Areas affected...West-central/northern IL...northeast MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 296...

Valid 210254Z - 210400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 296
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds, large hail and a tornado
or two will continue across the watch area.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite as of 0245z depicts several
areas of strong/severe thunderstorms across or about to enter WW
296.  Coverage continues to increase as warm advection with an
intensifying low-level jet focuses ascent across the watch area. 
Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows a supportive environment for a
continued severe risk with strong instability (2000-2500 J/kg) and
35-40 kts of westerly effective shear.  Although individual cells
will be capable of severe hail, cells merging into clusters/line
segments will be capable of producing more concentrated areas of
damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado.

..Bunting.. 06/21/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   39529033 39459092 39349177 39369216 39529223 39929140
            40219091 41089043 41759018 42329010 42438948 42348882
            41508861 39648959 39529033 

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