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000
ABNT20 KNHC 202316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Claudette, located inland over central South Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Tropical Depression Claudette (AT3/AL032021)

...CLAUDETTE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE COAST...
 As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Jun 20
 the center of Claudette was located near 34.7, -80.4
 with movement ENE at 20 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Claudette Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 210237
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Claudette Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
 
...CLAUDETTE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 80.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Claudette was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 80.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31
km/h).  An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the system should continue to move across
portions of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the
coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday,
and pass near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is forecast to 
become a tropical storm again by early Monday over eastern North 
Carolina.  Some additional strengthening is possible over the 
western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday.  Claudette is expected 
to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday 
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL:  Through Monday morning, Claudette is expected to produce
additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 5 inches across portions of southeastern Georgia, central
and coastal South Carolina, and south-central to eastern North
Carolina.  Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well
as isolated minor river flooding are possible across these areas.
 
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the
WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft
Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area by early Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area tonight and Monday.
 
TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday 
across parts of the coastal Carolinas.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 14

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 21 2021  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 210237
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021
0300 UTC MON JUN 21 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  80.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  70 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  80.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  81.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.9N  76.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 38.1N  71.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 150SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 41.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE  70SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 44.5N  61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE  90SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 47.5N  56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N  80.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 210238
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Deep convection is increasing in curved bands to the east and 
northeast of the center, however the center of circulation itself 
is not very well defined.  Coastal surface observations indicate 
that the highest winds have increased to near 30 kt.  Some 
additional restrengthening is anticipated, and Claudette is 
expected to regain tropical storm strength prior to moving into the 
Atlantic on Monday.  A little more intensification could occur 
while the system moves near the northern edge of the Gulf Stream 
during the next day or so, as reflected in the official forecast.  
Within 48 hours, as the cyclone moves near Atlantic Canada, the 
global models suggest that the system will lose tropical 
characteristics, or even open up into a trough.

Claudette's forward speed is gradually increasing and the current 
motion is estimated to be near 070/17 kt.  On the projected 
track, the system should move into the western Atlantic tomorrow.  
The flow ahead of a broad 500 mb trough approaching the eastern 
United States should cause the cyclone to accelerate east-
northeastward to northeastward during the next 48 hours.  The 
official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to 
the model consensus TVCN.

No changes to the warning and watch along the southeastern United 
States coasts are required at this time.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash 
flooding from southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday 
morning.  Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are 
possible across these areas.

2.  A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday across 
parts of the coastal Carolinas.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast by early Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 34.7N  80.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 35.9N  76.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  22/0000Z 38.1N  71.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  22/1200Z 41.0N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 44.5N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  23/1200Z 47.5N  56.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Tropical Depression Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 21 2021


000
FONT13 KNHC 210238
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021               
0300 UTC MON JUN 21 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  29(29)   4(33)   X(33)   X(33)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  3   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  4   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  4  10(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34 13   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34 11   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 13   9(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34 13   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34 21   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34 13   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 13   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    


Tropical Depression Claudette Graphics


Tropical Depression Claudette 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Jun 2021 03:13:33 GMT

Tropical Depression Claudette 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Jun 2021 03:22:38 GMT

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at 1102 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021



Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Issued at 1113 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021