Area Forecast Discussion

Pittsburgh, PA

Forecast Discussion for PBZ NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231417
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1017 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and unseasonably cool weather is expected today under a
crossing trough of low pressure. More widespread rain is anticipated
on Sunday with a crossing warm front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made some adjustment to hourly POPs, and lowered high temperatures
today based on latest trends and near term models.
Previous...Areas of showers are expected to cross the region this
morning with ascent/moisture due to a crossing shortwave trough, and
an upper jet. Isolated showers are possible through early afternoon,
though most of the rain should end this morning as the trough axis
shifts ewd. Scattered showers are also possible N of I 80 this aftn
with cool wrly flow off of Lake Erie.

High temperatures are expected to be around 5 degrees below average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface low pressure will deepen and slowly lift from the Central
Plains Sunday in response to a developing trough/jet moving through
the area. The associated warm front will lift northward through the
Ohio River Valley as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Strengthening
jet support and warm/moist advection will lead to increased
stratiform rain chances Sunday afternoon.

A break in the rain is expected late Sunday night and Monday morning
as an impressive dry slot overspreads the region in the warm sector.
This break will be short lived as the surface low and its cold front
moves into western Ohio Monday afternoon. This will quickly spread
showers back over the area from west to east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The low and upper trough should cross the region Tuesday morning,
bringing more widespread rain and slightly cooler temperature. Drier
and unseasonably warm weather should develop thereafter as notable
ridging is expected to build in advance of the next low pressure
system.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A swath of showers will work west to east through the region in
conjunction with the passing of an upper trough axis. MVFR/IFR cigs
should develop at all terminals, with the lowest impacts near a
stalled boundary stretching from ZZV to the Mason-Dixon line.

Dry advection and subsidence will slowly lift remnant stratocu in
the wake of the exiting trough this aftn, with VFR likely to return
to all terminals by 00z. A brief period of VFR sct to bkn mid-level
clouds overnight will give way to increasing coverage/lowering cigs
as a warm front approaches from the south. Look for rain and
widespread restrictions to develop near the end/just after the TAF
period.

.Outlook...
Widespread MVFR/IFR restrictions with rain will develop through the
day Sunday mainly along and north of a warm front set to move into
the region.

Rain chances and restrictions will continue through Tuesday with
the eventual cold front passage, though VFR conditions and brief dry
weather are possible within the warm sector of the low.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion