Area Forecast Discussion

Pittsburgh, PA

Forecast Discussion for PBZ NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202342
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
742 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through Monday
followed by dry conditions through at least midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The forecast trend remains on track as storms along the I 80 corridor
are beginning to wane; however, overnight pops will be maintained
given upstream shortwave activity on the van of the longwave
trough/front that will encroach on the immediate area on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A strong cold front will push southeast through the area during the
day on Monday. There will be potential once again for severe storms
with 3000 J/Kg CAPE and 35/40kts bulk shear. Minor flooding is also a
concern with high PWATs combined with relatively low MBE
velocity. This has all been mentioned in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The previously mention cold front will finally push through the
forecast area by Tuesday as dry weather is expected to return by
midweek with sfc high pressure building under relatively low
amplitude ern CONUS troughing. Cooler, post frontal temperature is
thus expected to quickly moderate through the week.

The next rain chance will come with the progged approach of a late
week long wave trough.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main aviation concern early on Monday will be southwest wind and
wind gusts which may be preceded by pre-dawn llvl wind shear as per
the tightening pres gradient in advance of a cold front. Expect
condition deterioration in convection for Monday aftn and eve.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely into early Tuesday with the passage and in
the immediate wake of the cold front. Restrictions are likely again
with the approach of late week low pres.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion