NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Current Mesoscale Discussions

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC MD 1094

MD 1094 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
        
MD 1094 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2020

Areas affected...central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 032055Z - 032300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms should continue to increase in coverage this
afternoon, with a few producing marginally severe hail and strong
wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Southeast surface winds have maintained low-level
moisture into the High Plains with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2000
J/kg over southeast CO and southwest KS. Several strong storms have
already formed along Front Range with hail indicated with 1 or 2
storms. Weak northwest winds aloft atop the low-level
southeasterlies is resulting in marginal shear for any longer-lived
cells, but continued destabilization and eventual outflows should
result in increasing storm coverage over the next several hours.
Locally damaging wind gusts or marginally severe hail will be
possible with these rather disorganized storms.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38930492 39420529 39910493 39860389 39390294 38670232
            38020182 37340177 36750216 36480276 36490324 37610410
            38930492 

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SPC MD 1093

MD 1093 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN MONTANA...EXTREME NORTHEAST WYOMING...NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
MD 1093 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2020

Areas affected...eastern Montana...extreme northeast
Wyoming...northwest South Dakota and southwest North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 032047Z - 032245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over the mountains of northern
Wyoming and southern Montana are expected to undergo a gradual
intensification as they move east through the northern High Plains
later this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind and large hail
will be the primary threats with the stronger storms. A severe
thunderstorm watch will probably be needed at some point, but timing
remains somewhat uncertain, so trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue developing over the
mountains of northern WY and south central MT. However, based on
current temperatures and RAP objective analysis, the boundary layer
remains capped to surface-based thunderstorms, suggesting it may be
difficult to sustain deep, organized convection east of the higher
terrain in the near term. Latest objective analysis shows MLCAPE
from 2000-2500 J/kg across eastern MT, and as temperatures rise to
near 90 F, convective inhibition should weaken sufficiently for
storms to survive and organize east of the mountains. This region
resides within belt of 30-40 kt southwesterly winds aloft that exist
above weak southeasterly post-frontal low-level flow. Once storms
become established, a few supercells appear likely, but eventually
some upscale growth should occur later during the evening.

..Dial/Guyer.. 07/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   44300488 45580688 46430835 47990793 48650577 46900323
            44550290 44300488 

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SPC MD 1092

MD 1092 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
MD 1092 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1092
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2020

Areas affected...central parts of Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 031926Z - 032200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are possible along an outflow boundary,
with isolated marginally severe wind or hail possible.

DISCUSSION...Moderate to strong instability is developing ahead of
an outflow boundary moving south into central parts of OK. Storms
have formed east of OKC, where MUCAPE is around 4000 J/kg. Visible
satellite also shows other towers forming along the length of the
boundary, as far west as Dewey County.

While shear is weak, there appears to be some influence from the MCV
over KS, and models indicate 500 mb winds veering to northwesterly
and increasing to near 20 kt during the late afternoon. This may
create enough deep-shear to sustain a few storm cores as they move
south or even south/southwest, with marginal hail and perhaps
isolated damaging downbursts.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34789843 35059897 35349924 35679924 35889903 35759864
            35659813 35529765 35439715 35539669 35659617 35889579
            35819559 35579544 35089557 34839598 34579696 34789843 

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