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SPC MD 770

MD 0770 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS
MD 0770 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0770
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Areas affected...northern Oklahoma into southern and eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241842Z - 242045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk -- primarily in the form of hail initially,
but possibly including wind/isolated tornado risk later -- will
continue to evolve with time.  WW may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms gradually increasing,
mainly over southeastern Kansas.  The storms are occurring ahead of
the cold front, but are initiating in an anafrontal/elevated manner
just north of a remnant outflow boundary analyzed across northern
Oklahoma.

With surface-based CAPE currently limited north of this boundary,
and lingering cloudiness retarding heating, storms should remain
slightly elevated over the next couple of hours.  Still, with ample
CAPE aloft, and a flow field that is yielding deep-layer shear
supportive of organized storms, some risk for hail appears to exist
in the short term.  

With time, gradual destabilization of the boundary layer ahead of
the front/weakening of the remnant outflow could occur -- which
would be accompanied by some increase in wind/isolated tornado risk.
 We will continue to monitor evolution of both the convection, and
warm-sector boundary-layer instability, over the next couple of
hours, with an eye toward possible need for a WW.

..Goss/Dial.. 05/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   39069621 39139470 38009475 37189551 36559677 36039879
            36149960 36599965 39069621 

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SPC MD 769

MD 0769 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TRANSPECOS REGION
MD 0769 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0769
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Areas affected...portions of the Texas South Plains
south-southwestward to the Transpecos region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241810Z - 242015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is forecast to gradually increase in coverage
and intensity over the next several hours.  A WW will likely be
needed within the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a dryline mixing eastward
across the Transpecos region, wile a cold front extends
southwestward across Kansas and western Oklahoma, and then across
the Texas South Plains.  Convection has initiated along the cold
front, near the front/dryline intersection, near LBB (Lubbock), with
storms also beginning to develop along the dryline near FST (Fort
Stockton).

Model forecast soundings reflect current conditions very similar to
those observed by the 12Z MAF RAOB, with weak lapse rates/capping
still in place.  Convective initiation however reveals at least
local breaches in this cap now occurring.  

CAM guidance suggests that this initial convection should remain
isolated and limited in intensity over the next 1-2 hours, but with
additional/more robust storm development occurring mid afternoon. 
With deep-layer shear sufficient for updraft rotation, a few
supercells are expected.  Primary risk initially will likely be
large hail, and possibly local wind damage.  As storms expand
through the afternoon and into the evening, an increasing
south-southeasterly low-level jet will enhance low-level shear, and
possibly the associated tornado risk.

We will continue to monitor convective evolution, with respect to
timing of potential WW issuance.  With at least some later ramp up
in tornado risk expected, this may require consideration that watch
type be tornado, despite limited risk initially.

..Goss/Dial.. 05/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   30490274 30930295 32250258 33090249 34250189 34580092
            34849992 34259973 32340051 30570168 30490274 

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