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000
ABNT20 KNHC 162318
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located less than 700 miles west-southwest of Bermuda.

A small low pressure system located about 1200 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next
day or so while the system moves slowly northwestward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some slow
development of this system is possible before it moves inland along
the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday night. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding along portions of the central
and upper Texas coastal areas later this week. For additional
information, see products issued by your local weather forecast
office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
 As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 16
 the center of Humberto was located near 30.3, -75.1
 with movement ENE at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 966 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 18

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019  

202 
WTNT34 KNHC 170232
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 75.1W
ABOUT 625 MI...1000 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 75.1 West.  Humberto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h).  This
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Humberto is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday
night or Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Bermuda by late
Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
expected.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Tuesday night.

Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern
coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North
Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 18

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019  

201 
WTNT24 KNHC 170232
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N  75.1W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N  75.1W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N  75.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.7N  74.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.1N  72.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.6N  70.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 32.8N  66.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.1N  60.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 210NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 40.5N  58.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 43.0N  50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N  75.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 


Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 18

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 170232
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Humberto continues to have an impressive overall appearance on
satellite imagery, although the eye is a bit ragged looking.
Earlier radar images from the NOAA P-3 aircraft showed that the
eyewall was somewhat fragmented.  A last-minute observation of
700-mb flight-level winds of 86 kt from the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters, outbound to the west of the eye, is roughly consistent with
a current intensity estimate of 80 kt.  Humberto should continue to
traverse warm waters for the next couple of days, and much of the
numerical guidance shows intensification in the short term.
Therefore the official forecast, like the previous one, continues to
call for the system to become a major hurricane within the next
day or so.  This is similar to the intensity model consensus.  By 48
hours, the shear should become very strong and a weakening trend
will likely be underway.  By day 5, if not sooner, the ECMWF global
model shows the system embedded within a frontal zone so Humberto
is forecast to be extratropical at that time.

The eye has been wobbling over the past few hours, but a smoothed
estimate of the motion is just north of east or 075/7 kt.  Humberto
should continue to move along the northern side of a subtropical
ridge with a gradual increase in forward speed for the next couple
of days. After that, the hurricane should turn northeastward and
north-northeastward with some additional acceleration in response
to a strong mid-tropospheric trough near Atlantic Canada.  Around
the end of the forecast period, the global models differ
significantly as to how far north into the Atlantic Humberto will
move.  The official forecast leans toward the ECMWF and corrected
consensus, HCCA, guidance.

It is still too early to give a good estimate as to how close the
core of the hurricane will come to Bermuda.  Interests should not
focus on the exact forecast track; only a slight deviation to the
right could bring the center near or over the island.

Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by late Tuesday, and
affect portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United
States coast during the next couple of days.  These swells are
expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening
rip currents.  See products issued by your local weather office and
the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 30.3N  75.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 30.7N  74.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 31.1N  72.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 31.6N  70.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 32.8N  66.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 37.1N  60.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 40.5N  58.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 43.0N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019


200 
FONT14 KNHC 170232
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   4(24)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  72(76)  19(95)   X(95)   X(95)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)  28(55)   X(55)   X(55)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  18(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    


Hurricane Humberto Graphics


Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 02:34:57 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 03:25:09 GMT