Area Forecast Discussion
Pittsburgh, PA
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 131700 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 100 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A gradual temperature moderation is underway and will persist into next week. Only isolated to scattered precipitation is expected until then. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry sfc high pressure will maintain dry weather, although variable afternoon cloudiness is expected via upper troughing. That troughing will also hold temperature 5 to 10 degrees under the calculated normals. Healthy radiation in the dry airmass over the Upr OH, with a clear sky and light wind, will support a 20 to 25 degree overnight temperature drop. That still will leave readings either side of the 40 F mark. No further frost/freeze products wl be needed. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A weak, positively tilted, ern CONUS, to wrn Atlantic longwave trough with ridging ovr the nwrn CONUS is projected to maintain varying degrees of nw flow ovr the Upr OH into Sunday. With no moisture return and t/td spreads of 20 to 30 degrees with sfc high pres, any shower activity with embedded shortwaves wl remain light, isolated, and nonproblematic while being confined to ridge areas. Temperature in this time frame wl moderate to near, but just shy of the calculated-normals as the overall atmospheric columns warms/trough fills. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak cutoff low pres ovr the Four Corners Region is projected to split flow ovr the CONUS early next week with moisture pooling in the frontal zone ovr the SE or srn Mid Atlantic States. Confidence in widespread rain has thus diminished for the immediate area with the better chc coming with a more significant shortwave on Sunday and early Monday with the passage of the right entrance jet region - that feature currently looks to have limited fuel support given nw holding deep moisture south of the region. Overall temperature wl remain seasonably warm, with further warming indicated during the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry sfc high pressure wl maintain VFR and lgt n wind through the TAF period. .Outlook... The next chc for general restrictions wl come with early week troughing. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$
