Area Forecast Discussion

Pittsburgh, PA

Forecast Discussion for PBZ NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291737
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
137 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be crossing the area today with the
passage of a cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably
cool conditions for the first half of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave will finish its exit through the region shortly, pushing
most convection east while leaving a residual trail of cloud cover.
Though storms may continue north of I-80 due weak sfc convergence,
the main focus will be on scattered shower and thunderstorm
development ahead of an approaching pre-frontal trough this afternoon
and early evening.

Storms could become severe with damaging wind and large hail the
primary threats in part due to abundant shear and increasingly dry
mid-level air. However, there are two factors that may limit the
threat, keeping confidence low that one even develops. The first
factor is waning upper support as the sfc feature lags behind the
exiting shortwave; more limited storm coverage is the likely outcome
of this. The other factor is instability, or the lack thereof, at
the moment given excessive cloud cover from this morning`s
convection. Very simply: more heating/destabilization is needed to
foster robust storm development and tap into the shear/dry air to
create the severe threat.

Overnight, additional weak shortwaves and the passage of the sfc cold
front may aid iso/sct showers with localized thunder. Otherwise,
drier conditions are expected due to building high pressure and dry, cold
advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will slowly build in from the northwest on Friday with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. Temperatures will run
below seasonal averages under cold advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another shortwave within the broad eastern U.S. upper trough will
push a weak sfc cold front through the region Sunday, increasing
precipitation chances.

High pressure should resume influence over the upper Ohio River
Valley heading into next week under weak upper troughing, with
temperature near to slightly below seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Initial activity associated with a shortwave trough/MCV is currently
exiting the region, with MGW/DUJ possibly keeping a brief
restriction right at TAF time.

Another round of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop in association with a pre-frontal trough during
the afternoon. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity
remains, and depends on the degree of destabilization that we can
achieve. Still, elected to keep a period of VCTS for several hours,
and tried to time the most likely period of impact in TEMPO groups at
the terminals. A direct hit will likely result in a brief period of
IFR/LIFR visibility and perhaps strong wind gusts.

Activity should dissipate/move off this evening with the departure of
the trough and the loss of instability. As the cold front drops
across the region overnight, a period of MVFR ceilings and mist is
possible at most terminals. Once daytime mixing commences on Friday,
ceilings will likely break, and VFR conditions and light northwest
wind will develop by midday.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion