Area Forecast Discussion
Pittsburgh, PA
747
FXUS61 KPBZ 161129
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
629 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Widespread dense fog, and pockets of freezing fog are expected
through early morning, otherwise no significant changes were
made to the latest forecast. The Dense Fog Advisory remains in
effect through 11 AM.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread dense fog, and pockets of freezing fog, through
morning
2) Warming trend through the upcoming week, before turning
colder next weekend. Rain
3) Rain chances return midweek
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Widespread dense fog will continue across the region this
morning. Snow cover, higher surface dew points, and partial
clearing have created very favorable conditions for the fog.
Some locations have fallen below freezing, especially across
Allegheny, Butler and Armstrong counties in wrn PA. The current
thought is the current fog and stratus development should stop
any additional radiational cooling, and temperatures could even
warm a degree or two toward sunrise. Highlighted not only the
dense fog in the latest Dense Fog Advisory, but also the pockets
of freezing fog which has resulted in a glaze of ice on
elevated surfaces. There could also be slick spots on roads and
sidewalks through early morning.
The fog should slowly improve through mid to late morning,
though stratus will likely persist much of the day.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A building ridge is expected to advance across the central CONUS
to the eastern CONUS on Tuesday. Rising 500 mb heights should
result in dry and warmer weather. This warming trend is expected
to continue through late week. The ridge is progged to flatten
by late week, with a trough approaching and crossing the region
by the weekend. Temperatures are expected to fall back to
seasonable levels after the passage of the trough.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
As the ridge shifts eastward and flattens on Wednesday, a
shortwave trough is expected to track across the Great Lakes and
Upper Ohio Valley region. This will spread rain back across the
area late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another shortwave in the
embedded in the flow is expected to bring an increase in rain
chances again Thursday night into Friday. Another, stronger
trough is expected to approach and cross the region late
Saturday into Sunday, with some indication of a surface low
development across the TN Valley/Mid Atlantic region. This
should result in rain and snow chances as temperatures begin to
fall with the passage of the trough.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areawide fog, locally dense at times, especially this
morning, expected through much of Monday.
2) VFR returns to areas south of Pittsburgh late Monday while
restrictions could linger north of Pittsburgh through midweek
------------------------------------------------------------
The TAF period begins with widespread dense fog across the area
with VLIFR being the rule and some airport minimums being met.
These conditions are expected to continue through Monday morning
before slow but gradual improvement occurs during the
afternoon. VFR may not return to some areas until late afternoon
or evening. Another round of fog and stratus could then be in
store mainly north of a BVI-LBE line Monday night.
Winds remain light and variable throughout the TAF period.
Outlook... The persistence of above-normal temperatures, light
winds, and cold/wet ground will favor at least nighttime
fog/stratus development north of Pittsburgh through midweek.
Elsewhere, VFR returns late Monday and prevails until Wednesday
when another low pressure system is forecast to return
restrictions and rain chances to the area.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>514.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...Cermak/AK
