Area Forecast Discussion

Pittsburgh, PA

Forecast Discussion for PBZ NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131700
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
100 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A gradual temperature moderation is underway and will persist into
next week. Only isolated to scattered precipitation is expected
until then.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry sfc high pressure will maintain dry weather, although variable
afternoon cloudiness is expected via upper troughing. That troughing
will also hold temperature 5 to 10 degrees under the calculated
normals.

Healthy radiation in the dry airmass over the Upr OH, with a clear
sky and light wind, will support a 20 to 25 degree overnight
temperature drop. That still will leave readings either side of the
40 F mark. No further frost/freeze products wl be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A weak, positively tilted, ern CONUS, to wrn Atlantic longwave
trough with ridging ovr the nwrn CONUS is projected to maintain
varying degrees of nw flow ovr the Upr OH into Sunday. With no
moisture return and t/td spreads of 20 to 30 degrees with sfc high
pres, any shower activity with embedded shortwaves wl remain light,
isolated, and nonproblematic while being confined to ridge areas.

Temperature in this time frame wl moderate to near, but just shy of
the calculated-normals as the overall atmospheric columns warms/trough
fills.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak cutoff low pres ovr the Four Corners Region is projected to
split flow ovr the CONUS early next week with moisture pooling in the
frontal zone ovr the SE or srn Mid Atlantic States. Confidence in
widespread rain has thus diminished for the immediate area with the
better chc coming with a more significant shortwave on Sunday and
early Monday with the passage of the right entrance jet region - that
feature currently looks to have limited fuel support given nw
holding deep moisture south of the region.

Overall temperature wl remain seasonably warm, with further warming
indicated during the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry sfc high pressure wl maintain VFR and lgt n wind through the TAF
period.

.Outlook...
The next chc for general restrictions wl come with early week
troughing.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion